![]() Decadal predictions of the ocean could, nevertheless, be invaluable in supporting climate adaptation and sustainable development 8 in coastal communities and nations, particularly in the Global South 9, 10 where ocean-dependency and climate risks are highest 11. However, on the important annual-to-decadal timescale predictive skill is currently limited to the ocean 6, 7, restricting their applications. The recent development of near-term climate predictions 2, 3 can potentially fill this gap and examples of such climate services can already be found on the sub-seasonal and seasonal timescales 4, 5. While these timescales are of value to strategic decision-making by, for example, governments, they are far from the seasonal, annual, and decadal timescales on which regional bodies, local governments, businesses and individuals make most of their decisions 1. Our current understanding of the impacts of climate change typically focuses on the climatic time scale for example, 50 or 100 years into the future. This tool will be critical in foreseeing, adapting to and coping with the challenges of a changing future climate, particularly in the most ocean-dependent nations and communities. Our results show that climate predictions can provide information of direct relevance to stakeholders on the decadal-scale. We also demonstrate that the habitat shifts underlying conflicts over Atlantic mackerel fishing rights could have been foreseen. We show statistically significant forecast skill of individual years that outperform baseline forecasts 3–10 years ahead forecasts of multi-year averages perform even better, yielding correlation coefficients in excess of 0.90 in some cases. ![]() Here, we demonstrate the application of decadal-scale climate predictions to the habitat and distribution of marine fish species. ![]() ![]() ![]() Advances in climate prediction mean that in some regions the drivers of these shifts can be forecast up to a decade ahead, although forecasts of distribution shifts on this critical time-scale, while highly sought after by stakeholders, have yet to materialise. Such shifts can drive international conflicts and are highly problematic for the communities and businesses that depend on these living marine resources. Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet’s changing climate by shifting their distribution. ![]()
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